HRUs, so she is claiming "abuse" by your friend, not by you, correct? She doesn't have a case at all. I can't see this going far. It is very obvious that it was all just playing around. Reagardless of whether or not the rash was caused by being held or by a tight life vest, it is still not an abusive act.
You will have to wait for this to play out and be cooperative and amicable with all investigations. I went through an abuse investigation recently and it was dismissed, but they have to follow through on every allegation.
I do agree with you that you should file for a custody reversal if she moves away.